1193 the Forecasting Voice : a Unified Approach to Teaching Statistics

The typical text in business statistics claims, in one way or another, that the use of statistics is to aid in decision making. In practice, very few texts do much to illustrate this, concentrating on a conventional development of techniques. Putting this reservation aside: how does statistical analysis ‘aid in decision making’? Statistical analysis provides forecasts of what is likely to happen, based on probability models, with estimates of how good the forecasts are likely to be. Decisions can then be made on the basis of the forecasts. A statistical analysis provides the basis for choosing an appropriate model. Statistics is not about finding ‘truth’ but about finding useful ways of describing ‘reality’. It follows that statistics teaching at any level should be intimately concerned with models and forecasting.